VIX -S&P 500 INDEX

VIX -S&P 500 INDEX

NOV 22, 2019 TECHNICAL INSIGHT. THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. EXERCISE DUE DILIGENCE YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK.

The VIX is the ticker symbol of the Chicago Board Options Exchange market Volatility Index. It measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options.

Others they call it FEAR INDEX or FEAR GAUGE.

We can see and monitor it in trading view using the symbol VIX.

As you can see in the 2nd chart, when S&P 500 (orange) , when the stocks become erratic and very volatile, VIX will be increasing . Notice the drop of prices of stocks can cause the VIX to fluctuate to the highest level.

In reading VIX, for example the index is at 13% , analysts translate it annualized. So 13/12 then can be interpreted as price of stocks can be 1.08% lower or higher as an assumptions.

So if we see an uptrend and seems stable or steady VIX will be registering low level of volatility but if sudden drop or falling markets will cause the VIX to shoot up and interpreted as panic mode.

We can also interpret rising VIX or erratic movements as increased in shortselling order.

GOLD – MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVE

NOV. 21 , 2019

THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. EXERCISE DUE DILIGENCE. YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK.

Im looking in weekly chart and observing how price actions developed overtime. As to short term , mini- rally seems possible but as to medium term Im seeing a different angle. While US is stronger as to economic outlook, global markets are being rocked by US-CHINA trade war. But seems trade war is making some points to US as to protectionism policy by Donald Trump makes the US dollar stronger. Latest issue affecting the China- US relations is the approval of US senate in supporting Hongkong freedom fighters that will surely anger China and may retaliate economically,politically and maybe flex his muscles in geopolitical arena.

We only wish both giants will soon cool down but seems it will not be possible in short term, or someday they should be since as developing country like Philippines needs a stable global outlook. We cant deny that US and China caused a lot of global uncertainties due to economic sizes and “superpowers” titles.

For now, lets monitor how gold react in day to day news happening worldwide. If it can continue its rally gold investors are happy. If not then absolutely bears are rejoicing.

GBPAUD

NOV 21, 2019 TECHNICAL INSIGHT. THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE EXERCISE DUE DILIGENCE YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK.

I am monitoring the pair for several days now observing if it can retrace below 1.89306 but apparently it stays at 1.90 level. Seems traders are waiting for something and bulls kept the price at a certain level. Report from CNBC from fed meeting , Economists are taking the option to pause cutting of interest rates as US already have taken a 3 rate cuts and easing interest rates as a expansionary measures, but as they said US is already in the best share as to economic postures and rates cuts in the future is no longer needed.

As of this time, the pair is in consolidation and staying 1.90 and making price adjustments near that level. Will still monitor and I am interested to see how it develops this week.

LEVERAGE

One of the biggest advantages and risks of Forex trading is leverage.

Investors use leverage to considerably increase the returns on their investments. However, leverage also increases losses, as it magnifies the movements on the currency market – both upwards and downwards. That’s why leverage is often called a “double edged sword”.

Leverage will allow us to take advantage profitability when the favor goes with us. But using leverage without proper education will be very risky and we might incur a bigger losses due to its multiplier effect.

As much as possible our aim is to be in the game for longer time, investment is not a competition and as much as possible we earn reasonable amount and consistent enough is favorable and we can still trade more in the future. We might start doing x5 to x10 as a starting point and eventually increasing it once we fully understand how and when to use it.. On top of possible losses we also pay overnight fees. We all make mistakes but it is not too late to make adjustments and lower the risks in our future trades. Greed always lead us in troubles.

Example of possible scenario:

OIL

Educational insights only not an investment advice, exercise due diligence.

As earlier assumed , from the resistance area of 58 and 59, price of US Oil retraced and now sitting at 38.2 % fibo level as of this time still bears are in control. If the decline will continue we might see touching it at 54 level and deepest price support might be in 53.80.

Just an assumptions , price might be affected by the plan Aramco IPO , Iran discovery of biggest oil reserve and also output from OPEC. Not to mention also US have also technologies to extract oil better. Nevertheless based on the current trend still going down and lets see if reversal is coming and eventually breaking the 58 to 59 barriers.

GOLD

Educational insights only not an investment advice and exercise due diligence.

Nov. 20, 2019

After hitting the resistance last Nov. 6, eventually declined on the following day bulls are overpowered by bears .We estimated that rebound will be at 61.8% approximately at 1458 price range and indeed rebounded As of this time, bulls trying once gain to break the barrier at 1493. If bulls will be successful breaking the resistance. we might see a comeback at 1500 level.

For overall market sentiments still focus in China -US trade war and investors are still worried if the two giants eventually come up a trade pact.Seems they are still in stalemate and another issue would be the approval of resolution from US senate with regards to expression of freedom in HongKong, it will surely anger China and may consider this a direct intervention by US in China political and economic affairs. Nevertheless we only hope that they will see a neutral ground and end the chaos in HongKong peacefully.